VALUES

A sixth-round rookie and a running back coming off back-to-back career-threatening injuries are Gus Edwards’ only competition for touches in this Chargers offense that will look to revamp their run game under new head coach Jim Harbaugh. Austin Ekeler’s 230 touches are up for grabs in this offense, and the team clearly does not believe in Joshua Kelly or Isaiah Spiller, making a total of 388 touches available for Gus Edwards to take a massive portion of. The Chargers losing both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and replacing them with Ladd McConkey, only reinforces our belief that the Chargers will approach the 2024 season with a ground and pound game plan. Gus Edwards has been an efficient back his entire career, boasting a 4.9 yards/attempt. On top of this, someone is going to have to score on this offense. Gus Edwards was one of the best running backs in the NFL from inside the 10-yard line. He lead the league, scoring all 13 of his touchdowns, from inside the 10-yard line. If he can get within the ballpark of his 13 TDs from last season, Gus Edwards is set to easily eclipse his RB41 ADP, and could be a serious top 15-17 RB threat.

Nico Collins, a player whose potential is often overlooked, is a top choice for your fantasy team.  His exceptional performance in 2023, ranking as the WR6 on a per-game basis, should instill confidence. Despite the influence of two factors on the general public’s perception, the addition of Stefon Diggs and the return of Tank Dell-Nico's performance remains strong. This reassurance should make fantasy football enthusiasts feel confident in their draft decisions.

Let’s dive into these factors:

Stefon Diggs should be a non-factor in Collin's output. Just look at Diggs's production profile to be convinced. From week 10 on, Diggs was the WR47 in fantasy. Over that stretch, he averaged 4.6 receptions, 43.6 yards, and 1 TOTAL touchdowns in 8 games! And the Bills were still winning without him. Even with a star player like Diggs on the team, there is still plenty of room for Collins to shine.

Tank Dell played in 11 games last year and saw 75 targets thrown his way—nearly 7 targets per game. During those 11 games, we saw Nico was STILL the WR15 (despite missing a game) and was averaging more targets per game than Tank. In addition, with Tank playing, Noah Brown and Robert Woods were averaging 11.8 targets and 128 yards per game, the equivalent of another WR1. There is plenty of firepower and volume in this Texans offense.

Given Collins’ effectiveness in 2023, his portion of the Texans' offensive pie (109 targets) will not diminish. Diggs and Dell’s targets will come from the 130 targets left behind by Noah Brown (55) and Robert Woods (75). Not to mention, Schultz's targets could get eaten into after he garnered 88 total targets last year. We are projecting somewhere between 145-160 targets to be available in this offense, with Nico keeping his 108.

Don’t be concerned about drafting Nico as your WR1.