Every year, we all try to be the best Fantasy analysts and forecast how players will do. What does last year's performance tell us? How did the change in the head coach or offensive coordinator impact them in the off-season? How do we factor in injury risk from one player to another?
But while we sit and debate this—and we are all, of course, the SMARTEST people you could talk to…what about Vegas? Oh yes, that group of forecasters. Last year, $11 billion was wagered on the NFL, and they employ a lot of very smart forecasters. The lines they make up until kick-off can be very telling to all of us.
So, let’s all use the Vegas information to our advantage. How do we do this? Stick with us. As we handicap Fantasy outcomes and forecast, we will take into account the Vegas lines and over/unders because they matter! And like it or not, Vegas gets right more often than wrong (or they wouldn’t be in business!)
As we head into the 2024 season, we have analyzed the current over/under at each position for the core stats we use for Fantasy Football. We have converted those stats into Fantasy points and ranked players based on what Vegas thinks! We will share that with you here.
A couple of things to remember: Vegas Over/Unders are different from a full forecast you would see for fantasy. Vegas incorporates potential injuries at a higher rate than the Fantasy community does, but shouldn’t we? Most fantasy forecasts do not account for players playing fewer games, but these numbers do.
So, let’s take a look at some highlights. For our complete over/under history from last year, look here at ffringfactory.com.
QB Rankings Sample: based on Vegas Over/Under with a critical stat, they need to hit
#1 Josh Allen: 9.5 Rushing TD Over/Under
#2 Patrick Mahomes: 34.5 Passing TD
#3 Jalen Hurts: 9.5 Rushing TD
Are there any surprises on the lower end?
#15 Kyler Murray: 17.5 Passing TD
#17 Jayden Daniels: 499.5 Rushing Yards
RB Rankings Samples:
#1 CMC: 10.5 Rushing TD
#2 Breece Hall: 7.5 Rush TD, 975.5 Rushing Yards
#3 Bijan Robinson: 6.5 Rush TD, 950 Rushing Yards
#7 Jonathon Taylor: 8.5 Rush TD, 1000.5 Rushing Yards
#17 Raheem Mostert: 8.5 Rush TD, 675.5 Rushing Yards
Are there any surprises above?
Mostert is ADP 25 right now; we have him at the #29 Rank…Vegas at #17.
WR Rankings Samples
Topin WR Over/Under:
Lamb, Chase @ 8.5 TD
Brown, Adams, and G. Wilson @ 7.5 TD
DK, DeVonta and Puka @ 6.5 TD
Any surprises? DK at 6.5TD is intriguing to us. We have him ranked at #21, which aligns with his ADP. But he has the 6th highest TD over/under? Is Lockett’s decline going to get much worse this year? If so, DK and JSN are moving up!
You can see that the Vegas odds and over/under can be super interesting to measure against when you want to make a “Fantasy Bet”!
To see players' success each week of last year vs their Over/Unders, check out the premium section on our website for historical player prop data including every prop category and all relevant players!
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