Today, we’re diving into one of the most powerful tools in your fantasy arsenal: UCV (Upside Consistency Value) and UCV+ scores.
At the FF Ring Factory, understanding and leveraging our proprietary UCV Rankings and the UCV+ score can be the key to building a championship-winning roster. Through our years of working to win leagues, we have found that you cannot just take a “Moneyball” approach to Fantasy Football to win a ring. What do we mean by that? It isn’t enough to build a roster of 9 strong floor players who score 12 points per week (plus QB), get you 115-120 points per week (in 1.2 point ppr standard scoring), and bring home Rings! That strategy can be successful in getting close to or in the playoffs, but if you don’t have players that can create significant upside weeks, you likely don’t win the big games when you need it. The UCV is designed to help you find those players and that performance, players that can create consistent upside with solid floors.
What is UCV?
UCV, or Upside Consistency Value, is a comprehensive metric that consistently evaluates a player’s ability to deliver significant "Boom" performances while minimizing "Bust" performances. In simple terms, UCV measures how often a player can give you those explosive weeks that win matchups while being reliable enough to avoid those dreaded low-scoring weeks. You might be thinking, isn’t this just a look at how often a player booms or busts? It is much more than that. This not only looks at how often a player may Boom or Bust but also at the size of the Boom or Bust and the actual performances of all other players that week. What you care about each week is how much a player outperforms the other players at their position, and how each player’s score warranted them being a fantasy starter for that given week (versus replacement level player). The UCV accounts for all that to show you the players that give you the best week-to-week advantage to win that match-up. But there is one last thing that UCV does vs traditional fantasy score ranks: it doesn’t over-inflate the value of any one-week performance. What does that mean?
Why UCV Matters
Consider a player like Raheem Mostert. He had some explosive games last year, but his fantasy points might only tell part of the story. Mostert finished as the #2 overall RB for Fantasy points scored. He had 6 games where he “Boomed” and averaged 26.8 points in those big games. He was a monster for most owners last year and a draft steal. But was Mostert the #2 best RB to have on your team? The UCV would say he wasn’t. Our UCV would tell you that his performance had him at #4 on the year and that you would have been better off having Kyren Williams instead of him. But why? Well, to start with, Mostert was also Busted in 2 games on the year vs none for Kyren Williams. And looking even deeper at Mostert's weekly performances, you would find that in 7 weeks last year, he had 12 or fewer points. Twelve points in a week would rank a RB at #18. So, in 7 weeks, Mostert was likely ranked 18th or worse among RBs. In fact, in 4 of his weeks, he was below 10 points. If an RB scored 10 points in most weeks last year, they would have ranked as the RB22 or worse. We know what you are thinking right now. Are we telling you it wouldn’t have been good to have Mostert on your team—Hell no! Mostert was a stud; in our world, he was the #4 overall RB for 2023–a tremendous season. But don’t forget that in 2 monster weeks (scores of 43 and 34 points), Raheem scored 29% of ALL of his fantasy points on the year. The UCV considers all this to determine how valuable a player is to a fantasy roster, week in and week out—at the same time, weighing strongly their ability to BOOM and help you win your week.
How is UCV Calculated?
UCV analyzes weekly performance data for each player by position and compares that to the rest of the performance of those players in a given week and over the year. We analyze the average weekly performance to determine what it takes to be a WR1 or RB1 weekly. During the year, we account for significant boom weeks, giving the appropriate credit to that performance without overstating that you can’t carry any of that performance into the following week. We account for bust weeks and the size and consistency of the busts. We have built a proprietary formula that leans towards needing players who can Boom weekly but give you a strong floor level of performance. Advanced statistical methods like the Z-score assess how strongly a player’s performance stands out relative to their peers. The Z-score helps us understand the standard deviations a player's performance is from the mean performance of their peers. The weekly scores are aggregated to form an overall UCV rank for the season, providing a clearer picture of a player’s value beyond total fantasy points.
This process ensures that players who combine high-ceiling performances with consistent week-to-week scoring are ranked higher, reflecting their actual impact on your fantasy team.
Introducing UCV+
In addition to the UCV rank, we’ve developed UCV+, a numerical score representing a player's performance for the season, scaled between 0 and 100. This score provides a straightforward, Madden-like rating that indicates how well a player performed and how consistently they delivered high-value weeks compared to their peers. UCV+ allows for easy comparison of players across different positions. This UCV+ gives you an easier way to compare players across positions and also to see the magnitude of the difference in each player's performance.
For example, in 2023, Christian McCaffrey had a UCV+ score of 99.76 (UCV RB Rank #1), reflecting his ability to deliver high fantasy points with minimal bust weeks consistently. At the same time, Jahmyr Gibbs had a UCV+ Score of 85.2 and a UCV RB Rank #7. What is significant here? It isn’t surprising that McCaffrey was #1 in UCV+ and RB #1 in UCV, which matches his #1 overall RB finish from last year. But Jahmyr Gibbs is a different story. Gibbs was the #10 RB from last year, but on UCV, he ranks #7. Furthermore, his UCV+ score was only 3 points from the Top 4 RBs in 2023. The UCV+ and his UCV rank point to the fact that Gibbs had an even better season than we might have realized and might compete with Etienne, Hall, and Williams for a top RB finish in 2024.
Utilizing UCV and UCV+ in Your Strategy
How can you use UCV and UCV+ to win your league? Here’s a step-by-step guide:
Draft Preparation:
Before your draft, review our UCV rankings and UCV+ scores. Focus on targeting players with high UCV scores early in the draft. These are the game-changers who can carry your team through the season. But also look closely for players with UCV Rankings that are materially (2-3 spots or more) different from their Fantasy Finish from 2023. Most of your peers will be drafting off cheatsheets based on Fantasy Finish. If you see a player who has a better UCV Rank than their Fantasy Finish, you can get value out of those players. Similarly, if a player had a much higher Fantasy Finish than their UCV Rank, you should drop that player in your draft rankings. These players likely had a few boom weeks but didn’t hold up their end of the bargain as a top-tier RB or WR most other weeks.
In-Season Management:
Use UCV to make informed waiver wire pickups and trade decisions. Monitor the weekly performance of players and compare their UCV scores to identify rising stars and potential busts. This will help you stay ahead of your competition and continually improve your roster.
Lineup Decisions:
Consult the current and prior year UCV scores weekly to consider who you want to start. What did you need to win that week? Do you need more Boom-type performances based on who you are going up against? If so, the current and prior year UCV+ scores can help you compare your options to start at WR/RB. Players with high UCV scores are more likely to deliver those big performances that can win you matchups. This tool helps avoid players with high bust potential, providing a more stable lineup.
The Unique Value of UCV
UCV is unique and proprietary because it provides a comprehensive view of a player’s value that goes beyond traditional fantasy metrics. While total points give you a snapshot of a player’s season, UCV offers a deeper analysis, highlighting the players who can provide reliability and explosive potential. This is crucial for building a roster that can navigate the ups and downs of a fantasy season and still come out on top.
Our extensive fantasy experience and modern statistical analysis allow us to bring you these unique insights. We break down complex data into easy-to-use tools, making applying advanced analysis to your fantasy strategy simple.
UCV+ = Championships
UCV and UCV+ are essential tools in our rankings and player recommendations. Using these metrics, you can build a roster that makes the playoffs and has the potential to win the championship. Remember, fantasy football is a game of skill and luck, but with the right tools, you can tip the scales in your favor.
Stay tuned to the FF Ring Factory blog for more insights, tips, and strategies to help you dominate your fantasy league. If you have any questions or need advice, contact us on social media. We're here to help you every step of the way.
Our UCV Rankings and UCV+ scores are exclusively available to our premium subscribers. For as low as $15.99 for the season or $6/month, you can access our Gold Tier Premium package, which includes in-depth analysis such as Draft Rankings of the Top 200 Players, Boom/Bust Reports, Sleepers, Values & Breakouts, and more. For even more advanced insights, our Platinum Premium Tools Package is available for $27.99 or $9/month, including everything in the Gold Package plus ADP Analysis, Player Usage, Target Share, Red Zone Data, Rankings by Tier, and bonus Player/Prop historical data from 2023. These premium tools are designed to give you everything you need to dominate your draft and win your league.
Happy Ring Chasing!
-FF Ring Factory Team
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