As we gear up for the 2024 fantasy football season, one of the most essential tools in your arsenal is Average Draft Position (ADP). At the FF Ring Factory, we're committed to helping you leverage ADP to build a championship-winning team. Let’s dive into what ADP is, how it changes, and how you can use it to your advantage.
What is ADP?
ADP, or Average Draft Position, represents the average spot where a player is selected across multiple fantasy football drafts. It provides a snapshot of a player’s perceived value within the fantasy football drafting community. ADP data is collected from various mock drafts and actual fantasy drafts on different platforms, offering a comprehensive view of where players are typically picked.
For example, if Christian McCaffrey has an ADP of 1.50, he is usually selected with one of the first two draft picks. This information helps fantasy managers predict when players might be available during their drafts and plan their selections accordingly.
How to Use ADP Effectively
1. Draft Preparation: Before your draft, review ADP data to identify trends and popular player picks. This will give you an idea of how other fantasy managers will likely draft, allowing you to strategize effectively. For instance, if Garrett Wilson has an ADP of 19 but you have concerns about his production, you can plan alternatives in the same ADP range, such as Amon-Ra St. Brown or Derrick Henry.
2. Identifying Value Picks: ADP helps you spot value picks and avoid overvalued players. If a player’s ADP is lower than their expected performance, they are considered a value. Conversely, if a player’s ADP is higher than their projected performance, they might be overvalued. For example, if De’Von Achane’s ADP rises due to positive training camp reports, recognizing this early can help you decide if his ADP has risen too much, making him not as compelling to draft or if you want him you will understand the higher price you will have to pay in terms of draft position (draft capital).
3. Flexibility: ADP is a guide, not a rule. Be prepared to adapt based on draft developments and player news. For instance, injuries or trades can drastically alter a player’s value. Keep an eye on these changes and adjust your draft strategy accordingly. Monitoring ADP trends can help you stay ahead of these shifts.
4. Mock Drafts: Participating in mock drafts is a great way to get a feel for ADP in action. You can use various mock draft tools online to practice different strategies and see how ADP translates into actual draft positions. This practice will help you be more confident and prepared on draft day.
Understanding ADP Trends
ADP is not static; it evolves based on player performance, news, and market sentiment. As we move from early July into mid-August, ADP data becomes more reliable, reflecting updated player evaluations. For example, a player like Breece Hall may see his ADP rise if he performs well in training camp, while an injury to a player like Jonathan Taylor could cause his ADP to drop.
Below are examples of 10 players and their current ADP (late July) vs where their ADP was at the end of June (listed in parenthesis)
Rank | Player | ADP |
1 | Christian McCaffrey, RB, SF | 1.0 (1.4) |
2 | CeeDee Lamb, WR, DAL | 2.0 (3.1) |
3 | Breece Hall, RB, NYJ | 5.0 (4.3) |
4 | Tyreek Hill, WR, MIA | 3.0 (5.8) |
5 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, DET | 7.5 (6.5) |
6 | Bijan Robinson, RB, ATL | 6.5 (6.9) |
7 | Ja'Marr Chase, WR, CIN | 5.5 (7.0) |
8 | Justin Jefferson, WR, MIN | 5.8 (7.4) |
9 | Saquon Barkley, RB, PHI | 14 (11.2) |
10 | A.J. Brown, WR, PHI | 9.5 (11.4) |
Watching Changes in ADP.
As the draft season progresses, some players will move up or down in ADP based on news flow, performance in training camps, etc. Below is an example of some players that could warrant watching and what you might think about these movements vs. their overall rankings.
Potential ADP Risers:
De'Von Achane, RB, Dolphins (ADP 23.8, already up from 35 in late June): Achane's explosive potential and the high-powered Dolphins offense could push his ADP higher as we approach draft day. Watch for headlines and training camp reports that may boost his draft stock, potentially moving him closer to a top-25 pick. (We identified this one in late June but he has already moved up 10 spots, a good example of how fast things can change and why you need to keep an eye on ADP.)
Tyjae Spears, RB, Titans (ADP 105.5): Who will get the workload in Tennessee? Will Tony Pollard be the workhorse, or will Spears garner a meaningful share? The Titans' committee approach could elevate Spears' ADP. If he is expected to share a significant workload with Tony Pollard, expect his ADP to climb.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks (ADP 104.3): With Seattle's commitment to the passing game, Smith-Njigba's ADP could rise as his talent becomes evident through preseason performances.
Potential ADP Fallers:
Kyren Williams, RB, Rams (ADP 20.3, was 13.6 in late June): With the arrival of rookie Blake Corum, Williams' role is still being determined. His injury risk and competition could cause his ADP to fall into the later rounds; we would welcome this and look for opportunities to get Kyren at a discount.
Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens (ADP 51.5): The Ravens' run-heavy approach and the presence of Derrick Henry could limit Flowers' targets, potentially dropping his ADP. This supports our case that Zay could be a disappointment to owners this year.
Jayden Reed, WR, Packers (ADP 73.5 was 67.3 in late June): Although versatile, Reed might see his ADP fall if the Packers' offense underperforms or if other receivers outshine him in camp. It is a crowded WR room. We believe in Reed’s talent, but we need to see what the target share will shake out to be here as we get closer to the season.
Strategies for Using ADP
1. Positional Runs: ADP by position helps identify runs on specific positions during the draft. For instance, if you notice a trend where wide receivers are being picked rapidly in the first two rounds, you can adjust your strategy to avoid missing out on top-tier WRs. Utilizing ADP and Tier Based Rankings becomes essential in your plan and approach.
2. Late-Round Steals: Pay attention to players with low ADP but high potential. These sleepers can become valuable assets if they outperform their ADP. For example, rookies like Puka Nacua and Tank Dell drastically outperformed their ADP last season, making them late-round steals. While it isn’t easy to identify those players upfront, you can take 2 to 3 players like this much later in your drafts to increase the chances that one has a breakout year.
3. ADP vs. ECR: ADP (what people do in drafts) and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR, expert opinions) provide different insights. Using both can help you gauge whether a player is undervalued or overvalued by the fantasy community. For example, Marvin Harrison Jr.’s ADP may differ significantly between sites, providing an opportunity to draft him at a value.
4. Watch Movement in ADP: ADP is fluid and can change based on recent developments. Monitor player news, trades, and injuries, as these will impact ADP. Adjust your draft strategy to capitalize on these changes and stay ahead of the other owners in your league.
ADP is a powerful tool... By understanding and leveraging ADP, you can make informed decisions, identify value picks, and build a strong team capable of contending throughout the season. Remember, while ADP is valuable, your draft strategy should also consider your league’s scoring settings, roster format, and your own player rankings.
Lastly, don’t forget to utilize our Proprietary UCV Rankings and UCV+ score. These will help you, alongside ADP, determine player values heading into your draft. They are available in our premium tools area, which is described below.
Happy Ring Chasing!
-FF Ring Factory Team
Our UCV Rankings and UCV+ scores are exclusively available to our premium subscribers. For as low as $15.99 for the season or $6/month, you can access our Gold Tier Premium package, which includes in-depth analysis such as Draft Rankings of the Top 200 Players, Boom/Bust Reports, Sleepers, Values & Breakouts, and more. For even more advanced insights, our Platinum Premium Tools Package is available for $27.99 or $9/month, including everything in the Gold Package plus ADP Analysis, Player Usage, Target Share, Red Zone Data, Rankings by Tier, and bonus Player/Prop historical data from 2023. These premium tools are designed to give you everything you need to dominate your draft and win your league.
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