A rookie WR has finished as a WR2 or better in each of the last ten years, yet every rookie receiver this year is going outside of the top 35 in ADP this year. As of right now, drafting the breakout rookie receiver looks challenging, with most of the first-round receivers getting drafted into crowded receiver rooms or onto bad teams. In spite of this, I am telling you to take your shot. Do Treylon Burks and Brandin Cooks realistically have a better chance to finish inside the top 12 versus any rookie receiver right now, much less the top 24? Draft your favorite rookie receiver in every single one of your drafts right now instead of throwing the pick away on a veteran who likely hits the waivers after two weeks. These rookies have significantly higher ceilings than the other veteran players around them at ADP. In the last three seasons, we saw Jaylen Waddle finish 8th, Jamarr Chase finish 5th, and Justin Jefferson finish 6th. It’s important to note that with EVERY one of these players, there was already a prominent receiver in the room when they were drafted; Tyreek for Waddle, Higgins for Chase, and Thielen for Jefferson. So let’s break it down with our six favorite rookie receivers:
Jordan Addison WR Minnesota Vikings - Addison was taken with the 23rd pick in the latest NFL draft. Addison was excellent in college; posting 100/1600/17 at Pitt his sophomore season in 14 games, and 59/875/8 his junior season at USC in 11 games. After his sophomore year at Pitt, Addison was believed to be a consensus top 10 pick when he declared for the draft, but things got a little shaky between his uncharacteristic junior season riddled with injuries, and a subpar combine performance. Regardless, Addison is a phenomenal receiver worthy of the 23rd pick selection, and likely poised to make an impression in a pass-heavy Vikings offense. With Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen gone, there are targets up for grabs and question marks to be answered in Minnesota’s offense, which typically makes a good landing spot for a talented first-round rookie receiver.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR Seattle Seahawks - JSN is the real deal. 95/1600/9 in Ohio State’s 2021 offense featuring now NFL budding stars Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, JSN led them both. Oh, and he did this alongside a 1300-yard rusher. Smith-Njigba’s draft stock took a minor hit with an injury-riddled 2022, but if he can regain his prime college form, JSN will be a superstar in the NFL. For this year, however, we are a little more reserved on drafting JSN. DK Metcalf is just entering his prime, and Tyler Lockett still has gas left in the tank. We would like to see Geno Smith support 3 receivers this year, but are not going to count on it. Nonetheless, take JSN over players like Brandin Cooks and Michael Thomas at his current ADP for the hope of a breakout. Quentin Johnston WR Los Angeles Chargers - He is the MAN. Entering the NFL draft, most considered Johnston the WR1 in the draft class. He has the physical capabilities of a true WR1 in the NFL and will have more opportunities than people think. Getting drafted to a team with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Josh Palmer seems intimidating, but it should not scare you off. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen have combined for a total of 24 MISSED games over the last three seasons. Johnston has a chance with injury to be a true stud in this Chargers offense, and he was drafted to play alongside the best QB of any of the rookie WRs, Justin Herbert. Kellen Moore’s offense should be more effective, as Herbert only threw for 25 TDs last season, that number could skyrocket to 40+. There will be plenty of opportunity for Johnston this upcoming season, he is a must-draft.
Jonathan Mingo WR Carolina Panthers - No one is going to like talking about taking this rookie, but you can literally select him with the last pick in your draft. Coming from Ole Miss, where they have been known to produce NFL-ready receivers like DK Metcalf and AJ Brown in recent years, Mingo deserves a look. He has a great frame for a rookie receiver, and with rookie QB Bryce Young under center, who knows where the ball may end up in this year's Panthers offense. If Bryce and Mingo build some real chemistry on the field, Mingo could be promising for an impactful rookie season.
Zay Flowers WR Baltimore Ravens - Zay Flowers was our favorite WR prospect coming into the draft, and he landed in probably the second-worst landing spot of any receiver in this write-up. Nevertheless, we like Flowers. He is a twitchy, make-you-miss offensive weapon who Lamar could build trust early. The problem? Lamar Jackson’s career high in passing yards came during his MVP campaign where he only threw for 3100 yards. Andrews is not going to lose his targets, Bateman is still a vying young option on the team, and Odell looks like he may have one more go around at being a QB’s primary target. With a limited passing yardage ceiling on Lamar, it is hard to see Flowers as the fantasy stud we hope for him, but if he connects with Lamar, and Lamar trusts him early, Flowers could win you your fantasy league.
Jalin Hyatt WR New York Giants - The most boom or bust prospect for the year, Hyatt could take off as a weekly starter or be left off your roster by week 3. But if he booms, he will be a monster hit. Hyatt has elite Tyreek Hill-like speed. With the Giants lackluster WR room, and only TE Darren Waller to contend for targets, we will see in week 1 if Hyatt can make an impact. This is another guy you should absolutely be drafting in the last two rounds of your drafts.
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