We are going to provide you with some of our most outlandish takes of the upcoming season. And even though the majority of these won't come true, they should provide you with direction on
how to think of these players.
Jahmyr Gibbs finishes as a top 3 RB he has every ability to accomplish this goal. As a personal D’Andre Swift owner in EACH of the last three seasons, I can tell you I enjoyed his peaks thoroughly. D’Andre Swift has had 16 career games with 15+ touches in a game (a full season of normal healthy opportunities wink wink), and his totals during those games are preposterous: 305 total touches, 1772 total yards, and 16 total touchdowns. THE LIONS KNOW HOW TO USE A HEALTHY RUNNING BACK. Gibbs was drafted higher than Swift and praised as having more talent than Swift. If Gibbs averages 15+ touches/game this season (more than reasonable) AND only puts up 80% of this production listed above, Gibbs would have finished as the RB7 in STANDARD scoring, with no points given for his most talented trait (receiving). His ceiling truly may be Christian McCaffrey.
Dak Prescott regains form and finishes as the QB4 Tony Pollard, Ceedee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Michael Gallup, second-year Jalen Tolbert, the electric KeVonte Turpin, and two capable young receiving tight ends in Ferguson and Schoonmaker. I could make the argument Dak has never had better receiving weapons at his disposal. In his QB6 2019 season, he was using Randall Cobb, 37-year-old Jason Witten, Blake Jarwin, and Tavon Austin as his primary targets behind Michael Gallup (still on the roster and just 27 years old) and Amari Cooper who did not put up numbers Ceedee Lamb can. If the O Line stays healthy, keep your eyes on Dak to put up a potential career year.
Travis Kelce is a one-way ticket to not winning a championship Is anyone still wondering what the worst build in fantasy football is? It’s investing in a first or second-round TE. It depletes every other position on your roster because it is such a high investment for a player who will not score enough fantasy points to make up for it. Here is a series of would you rather’s for a demonstration:
Travis Kelce and Rachaad White OR Austin Ekeler and Darren Waller
Travis Kelce and Christian Kirk OR Tyreek Hill and Dallas Goedert
Travis Kelce and Tee Higgins OR Jamarr Chase and Mark Andrews
Travis Kelce and Najee Harris OR Austin Ekeler and Mark Andrews
No matter how you cut the cake, slice the pie, or scoop the ice cream, I just can’t see it. There is not a scenario I am spending a first-round pick on a soon-to-be 34-year-old tight end who, miraculously for the tight end position, has not been injured in seven years. Sure, at a certain point is it definitely worth it to invest in Kelce, yes, but stop picking him over any of the other top 12 players: Jefferson, CMC, Chase, Tyreek, Ekeler, Kupp, Saquon, Bijan, Diggs, Cede, Chubb, or AJ.
Davante Adams is your bust of the year I am out. We have Davante lower than consensus, but I am done buying into “Jimmy G supplies us with fantasy options”. The 49ers have proven they succeed with their offensive schemes prioritizing the yards after catch. Kittle, Aiyuk, and Deebo, all succeeded as league leaders in yards after catch thanks to coaching schematics, not Jimmy G. I think Davante Adams is in the absolute top tier of elite receivers in the league, but he’s now 30 and playing with the worst QB of his career. Adams seems more like a volume play this year given the gloomy Raiders receiving options, but his days of being a Top 5 fantasy WR are o-v-e-r over. Please do not let Kyle Shannahan’s tactics of using magic to masquerade and manipulate minds with his success of using mediocre QBs trick you into thinking Jimmy G can seamlessly transition into supplying Adams with another 1500-yard 10+ TD season.
Drake London finishes higher than one of Chris Olave or Garrett Wilson This one is quite outlandish, but why not? London looked terrific last season, being the lone bright spot in the Falcons offense last season. I get they’re aiming to run the ball with Bijan, Cordarelle, and Allgeier, but Kyle Pitts is free-falling into the bust category every second that goes by and there is no real #2 WR on this team. If Ridder wants to be any good, he’s going to have to target London HEAVILY. QBs aiming to be successful in the NFL usually want to target the second-year #8 overall pick who just came off leading the team by a country mile in every receiving category. This is not an indictment on Olave or Wilson, both are superstars in the making. As an aside, both of Olave and Wilson’s receiving rooms have a lot of other weapons scrambling for targets and are both also dealing with new Quarterback play this season (not everything may be perfect for both of them).
Derrick Henry may officially be past his prime… SIKE. Does anyone know how old Derrick Henry is? 29. Does Anyone know when his birthday is? January 4th. Does anyone know when the fantasy season ends? December 31st. GIVE ME ALL THE PRE AGE 30 DERRICK HENRY I CAN GET. You probably thought this was going to be a Derrick Henry hit piece… think again. This man has been dominant for the last 5 years. He is one of the best bets in football to finish with 1200 yards and double-digit TDs, and until the clock strikes midnight on January 3rd, I want him. He’s one of 4 RBs with the highest chance to finish as the RB1 overall. Don’t come at me with the “he’s an injury risk”. I don’t want to hear it. This man averaged 23 carries per game over 4 seasons, any RB who doesn’t get injured with that level of dependency is a robot. He’s got one last hoorah in him.
Dalton Kincaid finishes as the TE3 everyone’s hopes and dreams have been answered, Dalton Kincaid is here to be the long-awaited WR2 for the Buffalo Bills. He flexed his receiving prowess at Utah with 70/890/8 before being drafted to basically be a massive WR. Rookie TEs are very difficult to project with very little data, but I love that there are 137 open targets up for grabs. That doesn’t even include taking away any targets from Diggs, Knox, Gabe Davis, James Cook, or Khalil Shakir. The TEs last year with 120+ targets? Travis Kelce and TJ Hockenson. Everyone is always so scared to select rookie TEs, but they’re not even considering the fact this kid isn’t a TE, he’s the #2 WR on the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL.
One of Sam Howell, Jordan Love, or Desmond Ridder will finish as a top 15 QB, but which is it? This is hard to say. And to be frank, we can’t entirely tell you which one will pop with certainty. All are in great positions to succeed this season, as they are all on rosters far more properly built than the rosters of current rookie QBs’ teams. So why not consider them over the rookies?
Howell has Dotson, McLaurin, and a stable run game. He was the best college QB of the 3 with a 4:1 TD to INT ratio at UNC. Remember Mitch Trubisky? Mitch had one season of 3800 yards and 30 TDs that got him drafted 2nd overall. Over the course of three seasons at UNC Howell averaged 3400 and 31 EACH SEASON, his peak being a 3600 yard 38 TD freshman year.
Love has Aaron Jones, and a plethora of young talented receivers with Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, rookie Jayden Reed, and rookie TE Luke Musgrave. The Packers elite defense will give Love some comfort room to work on offense, but his 2:1 college TD to INT ratio at Utah State remains concerning for a guy unable to take the job in his first two seasons, and a 1:1 ratio in games he’s played.
Desmond Ridder just got Bijan Robinson gifted to him with Drake London and Kyle Pitts. He has the best OL of the three and very likely the best supporting cast. The problem? He may actually be the worst QB of the three. The four games he started last year were painful to watch. With a full offseason as the #1, maybe he will make the leap.
Our choice would be Howell. He’s both the safest option and probably has the highest ceiling. The Commanders are not going to be able to purely rely on the run this season, which is a direction both the Packers and Falcons could take. The Commanders are seemingly riding and dying with the Sam Howell experiment, and we’re here for it.
BONUS Here’s a list of current NFL starters who started 6 games or less in year one (out of the 26 leftover starters excluding these three and rookies):
Patrick Mahomes
Deshaun Watson
Jalen Hurts
Aaron Rodgers
Kirk Cousins
Jimmy Garropolo
Notice how 5 of the current top 15 QBs qualified? This is the reason one of them may explode this year… the year off helps.
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