BREAKOUTS

Let’s start with the obvious: The Bills have 218 targets and 206 catches up for grabs with the departures of Diggs, Gabe Davis, Latavius Murray, Doente Hardy, and Trent Sherfield. They brought in Curtis Samuel and Keoon Coleman to make up the difference alongside Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, and James Cook. However, Kincaid stands to benefit the most of these players.

Three tight Ends were considered their teams' primary targets last season: Evan Engram, Travis Kelce, and Trey McBride. These players saw 143, 121, and 106 targets last year. If Kincaid receives the average number of targets between those three players, he would have 123 in the 2024 season. With 123 targets last year, Kincaid would have been on track to put up 99 receptions, 911 yards, and 4 touchdowns. That would have been good enough for him to be…the TE5.

Kincaid finished with only 2 TD’s his rookie season.  He only had 9 Red Zone targets, ranked 17th among all TE’s.   But with Diggs and Davis out of town, 27 Red Zone targets open up for Kincaid to take over.  While this work will likely be split between Kincaid, Samuel, and Colement, Kincaid has a year of experience working with Josh Allen. This offense will be high-powered enough to change Kincaid’s TD output drastically.

Kincaid is due for a massive uptick in volume.  Being Josh Allen’s #1 target this season could mean Kincaid finishes as one of the elite Tight Ends in Fantasy Football.

Draft him in every league you can!

JSN, despite being in a receiver room with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, is poised for a significant increase in volume under new pass-heavy coach Mike MacDonald. His exceptional route-running skills, evident in his fourth-best average separation (3.8) per route run, are a testament to his potential. Despite receiving only 13.5% of the team’s air-yard target share (12th worst), he made the most of his opportunities with a catch rate of 70%. These numbers should correlate, not contrast, indicating a potential breakout with more volume on the horizon.